The conflict between India and Pakistan is one of the most enduring and volatile rivalries in modern history, rooted in the partition of British India in 1947. As of May 9, 2025, tensions have escalated to a critical point, with recent military actions bringing the two nuclear-armed neighbors closer to a full-scale war than they have been in decades. This blog explores the historical context, key conflicts, and the current crisis, offering a critical perspective on the establishment narratives.
Historical Background
The partition of British India into India and Pakistan in 1947 was a violent and chaotic process, displacing millions and leaving a legacy of bitterness. The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, with a Muslim-majority population but a Hindu ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, became a flashpoint. Singh’s decision to accede to India, despite Pakistan’s claims, triggered the first Indo-Pakistani War (1947-1948). The conflict ended with a UN-mediated ceasefire, establishing the Line of Control (LoC), which divided Kashmir between the two nations—India controlling about two-thirds, including the Kashmir Valley, Jammu, and Ladakh, and Pakistan administering the remaining areas, known as Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Subsequent wars in 1965 and 1999 (the Kargil War) were also fought over Kashmir, driven by territorial disputes and Pakistan’s support for insurgencies in Indian-administered Kashmir. The 1971 war, however, was an exception, stemming from the Bangladesh Liberation War, where India’s intervention led to the creation of Bangladesh from East Pakistan. This conflict resulted in a decisive Indian victory, with Pakistan surrendering over 90,000 troops—the largest such surrender since World War II.
Key Conflicts and Military Standoffs
- 1965 War: Initiated by Pakistan’s Operation Gibraltar, which aimed to incite an insurgency in Kashmir, this war ended in a stalemate after 17 days of intense fighting, including the largest tank battle since World War II. The Tashkent Declaration, brokered by the Soviet Union, restored the pre-war status quo.
- 1999 Kargil War: Pakistani troops infiltrated across the LoC, occupying strategic heights in Kargil. India’s military response, coupled with international pressure, forced Pakistan to withdraw. This conflict, occurring after both nations tested nuclear weapons in 1998, underscored the high stakes of their rivalry.
- 2008 Mumbai Attacks: Militants from the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) killed 166 people in Mumbai. India accused Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of involvement, a claim Pakistan denied, further straining relations.
- 2019 Balakot Airstrikes: Following a suicide attack in Pulwama that killed 40 Indian soldiers, India conducted airstrikes on alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan’s Balakot region. Pakistan retaliated, downing an Indian jet and capturing the pilot, who was later released. This episode highlighted the risk of escalation between nuclear powers.
The Current Crisis: May 2025
As of May 9, 2025, India and Pakistan are on the brink of another major conflict, triggered by a terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 tourists. India blamed Pakistan for supporting the attack, a charge Pakistan denied. In response, India launched missile and drone strikes on May 7, targeting nine alleged terrorist sites in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab province—the deepest strikes into Pakistan since 1971. Pakistan condemned the strikes as an “act of war,” claiming 31 civilian deaths, and reported downing 25 Indian drones and five fighter jets, including French-made Rafales. India, however, has not confirmed these losses, and independent verification remains elusive.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif authorized “corresponding actions,” and the country retaliated with shelling along the LoC, killing 16 civilians on the Indian side, according to Indian reports. Both nations have escalated their military posture, with India suspending the Indus Waters Treaty—a 1960 agreement that had survived previous wars—and Pakistan threatening to suspend the 1972 Simla Agreement, which established the LoC. Diplomatic ties have been severed, border crossings closed, and both sides are conducting blackout drills amid fears of further escalation.
Critical Analysis
The establishment narratives from both sides are steeped in nationalist rhetoric, often obscuring the truth. India’s claim of targeting only “terrorist infrastructure” with “no collateral damage” is questionable, given Pakistan’s reports of civilian casualties, including children. Conversely, Pakistan’s claim of downing multiple Indian jets lacks independent corroboration, and its denial of involvement in the Pahalgam attack ignores its historical support for militant groups like LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed, which both nations have designated as terrorist organizations.
The role of external powers is also critical. Historically, the U.S. and Soviet Union played key roles in de-escalating India-Pakistan conflicts, as seen in 1965 and 1971. However, the current U.S. administration under President Trump has taken a hands-off approach, with Vice President J.D. Vance stating that the conflict is “none of our business.” This lack of mediation, combined with Pakistan’s growing reliance on Chinese military technology (e.g., J-10 fighter jets) and India’s acquisition of Western systems (e.g., Rafale jets, S-400 defenses), increases the risk of a technological and geopolitical showdown.
Moreover, the Kashmir issue remains unresolved, with India’s revocation of the region’s autonomy in 2019 fueling local discontent and Pakistan’s continued support for insurgents exacerbating tensions. The human cost is immense—decades of conflict have claimed thousands of lives, displaced millions, and left Kashmir one of the most militarized regions in the world.
Looking Forward
The current crisis is the most dangerous since at least 2002, with both sides equipped with advanced weaponry and nuclear capabilities. While neither wants a full-scale war—given the catastrophic consequences—the risk of miscalculation is high. A 1993 CIA report, declassified in 2025, estimated a 1-in-5 chance of war between India and Pakistan, a probability that seems even higher today given the lack of diplomatic backchannels and the intensity of recent clashes.
International intervention is urgently needed. Gulf states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which have ties to both nations, could mediate, as could the EU, which has expressed concern. However, without a concerted effort to address the root causes—Kashmir’s status, cross-border terrorism, and mutual distrust—the cycle of violence will persist.
The people of Kashmir, caught in the crossfire, deserve better. As Malala Yousafzai recently stated, “Hatred and violence are our common enemies, not each other.” Leaders on both sides must prioritize dialogue over destruction, lest they drag South Asia into an abyss from which there may be no return.
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